Wednesday AM Update

WEDNESDAY, July 24, 2024, 4:50 AM CST

MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN

This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Wednesday, July 24, 2024. Grain prices were mixed at the close on Tuesday after a strong start to the day. Corn was quietly higher, soybeans were flat in August and up 6 in November, while wheat settled the day down 5 to 7 cents. Many of the grain contracts are running into overhead resistance on the charts. The bulls need to string together a few more days of higher highs and higher lows to see if they can trigger any more short-covering by the funds. In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are down 1, soybean futures are down 2 and wheat futures are steady to down 5 cents.

TO DO:  No new recommendations at this time. 

PRICE TARGETS: Click here to review our current price targets.  

WHAT WE’RE THINKING:  The funds have likely covered some of their record short position in the corn and soybean market in the last few days. A string of export sales announcements would aid the bull camp at a time when they are looking for more momentum.  

WHAT TO WATCH: Traders have added risk premium back to the grain market, since weather for last week of July and the first week of August look to be less than ideal. However, the crop ratings remain impressive. The pace of planting this spring was behind normal, making this late-July heat even more important to watch. 

THE MARKETS

Overnight Markets

September Corn:  The trading range is 3 cents; prices are down 1 at $4.01.

August Soybeans:  The trading range is 12 cents; prices are down 2 at $11.15. 

Wheat: CBOT wheat is steady; Minneapolis wheat is down 5 and KC Wheat futures are down 4.

Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is down 0.9%, Japanese stocks are down 1.1% and European stocks are down 0.9%.

Outside Markets:  The US Dollar Index is up 0.02 at 104.18, crude oil is up 17 cents per barrel at $77.64, S&P futures are down 44 points at 5,558, Dow futures are down 180 points at 40,421 and gold futures are up $4 at $2,415.

Livestock Futures:  Livestock futures closed higher on Tuesday. August Lean Hogs closed up $1.27 at $93.65. August Live Cattle closed up $2.37 at $186.30. August Feeder Cattle closed up $2.35 at $258.75.

TODAY’S CHART:   This is the daily chart of December corn futures. You can see that prices put in a spring high ($4.96) on May 15 and a summer low ($4.03) on July 12. The blue line indicates the 20-day moving average. We have only seen one close above the 20-day since May 28. A close above $4.27 would be above the prior three-week high, which could trigger further short covering. Momentum indicators (below the price chart) have shifted in favor of the bulls and are at the highest levels in a month. A convincing close above the 20-day and above the prior three-week high could kick start a bigger rally for corn.