WEDNESDAY, July 3, 2024, 4:50 AM CST
MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN
This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Wednesday, July 3, 2024. Grain prices were mixed at the close on Tuesday as traders prepare for the mid-week holiday break. August soybeans tested the 20-day moving average yesterday and again in the overnight session. A convincing move above $11.63 (last week’s high) could trigger a new wave of buying for soybeans. The next upside target would be the 100-day moving average near $11.86. If the weather forecasts do not change much today, then we are likely to see a somewhat calm day of trading, with a chance of technical buying. In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are steady, soybean futures are up 3 and wheat futures are up 1 to down 1 cent.
Holiday schedule: The US commodity and stock markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday on Thursday July 4. We do not have any Globex night markets on July 3 or 4. We will publish the weekly Kluis Report today (Wednesday July 3). The next update will be the mid-day update on Friday July 5, then the closing email and Kluis Now App update by 4 PM on Friday July 5.
TO DO: No new recommendations at this time.
PRICE TARGETS: Click here to review our current price targets.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING: It is interesting to see the trend of crop conditions decline over the past few weeks. The declining trend as we head into the key pollination window for corn is not ideal for big yields.
WHAT TO WATCH: Will we see further export sales announcements on the daily reporting system? The cure for low prices is low prices; traders expect to see demand pick up after the decline in prices we have seen in the last few weeks.
THE MARKETS
Overnight Markets
September Corn: The trading range is 3 cents; prices are steady at $4.08.
August Soybeans: The trading range is 14 cents; prices are up 6 at $11.56.
Wheat: CBOT wheat is up 1; Minneapolis wheat is down 1 and KC Wheat futures are down 1.
Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is up 1.2%, Japanese stocks are up 1.3% and European stocks are up 0.8%.
Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is down 0.07 at 105.30, crude oil is down 30 cents per barrel at $82.87, S&P futures are up 7 points at 5,570, Dow futures are up 84 points at 39,738 and gold futures are up $14 at $2,353.
Livestock Futures: Livestock futures closed higher on Tuesday. July Lean Hogs closed up 2 cents at $89.22. August Live Cattle closed up 82 cents at $185.10. August Feeder Cattle closed up $3.72 at $261.10.
TODAY’S CHART: This is the daily chart of December corn futures. We can see that prices have fallen aggressively since the June 14 high to the low hit last Friday. That low from last Friday was a new contract low for December 2024 corn futures, taking out the previous contract low hit in July 2021 (the black line). Last week, momentum indicators also hit the lowest level seen on this contract. If the bull camp is going to turn the tides, then we need to see a string of consecutive higher highs and higher lows. The report-day high from last week ($4.41) is going to be the first upside target we need to see a close above. If that can happen, then the next target would likely be the 20-day moving average (the blue line).