Wednesday AM Update

Wednesday April 12, 2023 5:10 AM CST


Good morning.  This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Wednesday April 12, 2023.  On Tuesday, the USDA reports showed very little change from in the US ending stocks from last month. Favorable weather put pressure on the corn and wheat markets while soybean futures closed higher.  

In the US Globex overnight grain markets, corn futures are 3 cents higher, soybean futures are 1 cent lower and wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents higher.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, corn is lower and soybean futures are higher.  On the Matif exchange in Europe, wheat futures are 3 cents a bushel higher at $8.33.

TO DO:   Review our price targets and where you should be.     

WHAT WE’RE THINKING: The USDA will eventually take soybean ending stocks lower. I was surprised they did not make any changes in the April report released yesterday. 

WHAT TO WATCH:   I am watching the Energy Information Agency (EIA) reports today to see if gasoline consumption starts the normal seasonal increase. Ethanol prices and profits have started to improve. An improvement in demand could really help keep the rally going. 


Overnight Markets

May Corn:  The trading range is 7 cents; the last trade shows corn up 3 cents at $6.54.

May Soybeans:  The trading range is 8 cents; the last trade shows soybeans down 1 cent at $14.96.

Wheat: Chicago wheat is up 6 cents, KC wheat futures are 8 cents higher, Minneapolis wheat is up 5 cents. 

Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is up 0.4% and in Japan the stock market is up 0.6%.  European stocks are up 0.7%.  

Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is down 0.15 points at 102.05; crude oil is up 14 cents per barrel at $81.66, S&P futures are up 9 points at 4,145; Dow futures are up 86 points at 33,938 and gold futures are up  $8 per ounce at $2,012.

Livestock Futures:  In the livestock markets on Tuesday, June Hogs closed down $1.30 at $87.85. June Cattle closed up 25 cents at $163.95, and May Feeders closed up $2.20 at $207.82. 

TODAY’S CHART:   Crude oil

About this chart: This is the weekly crude oil continuation chart. You can see the low in November 2020 ($34), the next major low and double bottom in November 2021 ($62), and the rally to the major high ($130) in March 2022. The last major low came in late March 2023 ($64). The crude oil market gapped higher last week and is now challenging chart resistance at $82.64.  A close above $82.64 will project a test of the $93 price level.  [Chart source: DTN/ProphetX]