THURSDAY, January 4, 2024, 4:50 AM CST
MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN
This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Thursday, January 4, 2024. Grain futures were mixed at the close on Wednesday. Corn and soybean futures dipped below the Tuesday low before closing quietly higher. This could be considered a doji candle on the daily charts, which is often considered a signal for a change of momentum. A higher high and higher low today would be a good sign for the corn and soybean bulls. Wheat futures were lower at the close;fd prices fell below the Tuesday low and were unable to return to positive territory. In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are steady, soybean futures are down 3 and wheat futures are steady to down 3 cents.
TO DO: Our team has no new recommendations at this time.
PRICE TARGETS: Click here to review our current price targets.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING: After falling during the final days of December to the lowest level since late July, the US dollar is testing resistance at the 20-day moving average on the daily continuation chart. We are likely seeing short-covering ahead of the first big economic report slated for Friday morning.
WHAT TO WATCH: The weekly USDA Export Sales report will be released tomorrow morning due to the holiday on Monday. Traders are expecting the report to be mostly quiet, since there were very few daily sales reported in the last part of December.
THE MARKETS
Overnight Markets
March Corn: The trading range is 1 cent; prices are steady at $4.65.
March Soybeans: The trading range is 7 cents; prices are down 3 at $12.74.
Wheat: CBOT wheat is down 3; Minneapolis wheat is steady and KC Wheat futures are down 3.
Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is down 0.1%, Japanese stocks are down 0.5% and European stocks are up 0.3%.
Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is down 0.22 at 101.97, crude oil is up 72 cents per barrel at $73.42, S&P futures are up 3 at 4,750, Dow futures are up 33 points at 37,730 and gold futures are up $12 at $2,055.
Livestock Futures: Livestock futures closed mixed on Wednesday. February Lean Hogs closed down 2 cents at $65.30. February Live Cattle closed down 7 cents at $171.85. January Feeder Cattle closed up 65 cents at $226.07.
TODAY’S CHART: This is the daily continuation chart of corn futures. You can see that futures posted a high at $5.09 on October 20 and a low at $4.47 on November 29. After the October high, prices struggled to get above the 20-day moving average the (blue line) until the December contract expired and March took over as the front month contract. That created a gap higher on the continuation chart on December 15. With the sell-off on Tuesday, prices slipped back below this moving average to start the 2024 trading year. To fill the gap, we need to trade down to $4.60 (the horizontal black line). If the bears decide to push futures even lower, then we should see support at the December 13 low ($4.55) or the November 29 low ($4.47).