Chart of the Week – Wheat

About this chart: This is the monthly CBOT KC wheat continuation chart. You can see the high in February 2008 at $14.70. From that high, prices made a series of lower highs and lower lows with prices eventually making a major low at $3.67 in August 2016. From that low, prices rallied back to $5.98 in August 2018 before trending lower to the potential major low in late April at $3.83. This plunge in wheat prices also pulled corn futures lower. The hard down-move in wheat prices is one of the fundamental reasons why we lowered our sales targets to in corn. With KC wheat trading just below $4.00–and with seasonal odds projecting lower prices into harvest–it will be hard for corn futures to mount a sustained rally back.

What this means for you: I will be watching the May-to-July continuation gap. If the July futures hold above where the May contract expires, then it may signal an early seasonal low in the wheat market.