Planting Season: Crop Progress Report #4

The USDA Crop Progress report showed that corn planting advanced 19% this week to get to 49% planted. This compares to the average trade estimate at 50% and my Friday estimate at 52%. The six-year average is at 81%.  A key state to watch in next week’s report will be South Dakota, where they have only planted 9% of their corn, compared to the five-year average at 62%. Our team is also watching Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Minnesota, where they are also way behind.

The report today showed corn emergence at just 19% compared to the five-year average at 49%.

Here is what to watch for in future reports.

 

Six Year Average Actual USDA
Monday, April 15 5% 3%
Monday, April 22 12% 6%
Monday, April 29 25% 15%
Monday, May 6 43% 23%
Monday, May 13 63% 30%
Monday, May 20 81% 49%
Monday, May 28 90% 63% (Al’s Estimate)

 

I now estimate that over 32 million acres will be planted after Memorial Day in the US. The corn that is north of Interstate 80 only has 77% of normal yield potential when it is planted after Memorial Day. I am taking my projected corn acreage and yield projections lower again this week.

For soybeans, nationwide planting was reported at 19%. This compares to 9% last week. The five-year average at this time is 44% while last year planting had reached 56%. Soybeans planted in June just do not have the yield potential of soybeans planted in May in the northern Corn Belt.

Hard red spring wheat planting was reported at 70%. This is up 45% from last week. The five-year average during this time period is 81% and last year planting had reached 79%. This number was a little larger than I expected.