The USDA Crop Progress report showed that corn planting advanced 19% this week to get to 49% planted. This compares to the average trade estimate at 50% and my Friday estimate at 52%. The six-year average is at 81%. A key state to watch in next week’s report will be South Dakota, where they have only planted 9% of their corn, compared to the five-year average at 62%. Our team is also watching Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Minnesota, where they are also way behind.
The report today showed corn emergence at just 19% compared to the five-year average at 49%.
Here is what to watch for in future reports.
Six Year Average | Actual USDA | |
Monday, April 15 | 5% | 3% |
Monday, April 22 | 12% | 6% |
Monday, April 29 | 25% | 15% |
Monday, May 6 | 43% | 23% |
Monday, May 13 | 63% | 30% |
Monday, May 20 | 81% | 49% |
Monday, May 28 | 90% | 63% (Al’s Estimate) |
I now estimate that over 32 million acres will be planted after Memorial Day in the US. The corn that is north of Interstate 80 only has 77% of normal yield potential when it is planted after Memorial Day. I am taking my projected corn acreage and yield projections lower again this week.
For soybeans, nationwide planting was reported at 19%. This compares to 9% last week. The five-year average at this time is 44% while last year planting had reached 56%. Soybeans planted in June just do not have the yield potential of soybeans planted in May in the northern Corn Belt.
Hard red spring wheat planting was reported at 70%. This is up 45% from last week. The five-year average during this time period is 81% and last year planting had reached 79%. This number was a little larger than I expected.