The USDA Crop Progress report showed that corn planting advanced just 7% this week resulting in 30% of crops planted. This compares to the average trade estimate at 35% and my Friday estimate at 35%. The six year average is at 63%. The states that are way behind are Illinois at 11%, Indiana at 6%, Ohio at 4%, and South Dakota again came in at 0%. South Dakota alone could see over 1 million acres of prevent plant claims. With new crop cash bids for soybeans below $7.00, the prevent plant claim is now the least lost alternative.
The report today showed corn emergence at just 10% compared to the five-year average at 29%. Keep in mind that it is not planting date, but emergence date that ultimately will impact yields.
Here is what to watch for in future reports.
|Six Year Average||Actual USDA|
|Monday, April 15||5%||3%|
|Monday, April 22||12%||6%|
|Monday, April 29||25%||15%|
|Monday, May 6||43%||23%|
|Monday, May 13||63%||30%|
|Monday, May 20||81%||52% (Al’s Estimate)|
I am now taking both my harvested acreage and yield projections lower after today’s USDA Crop Progress report.
For soybeans, nationwide planting was reported at 9%. This compares to 6% last week and the five-year average at 29%. Although, its only May, this is now starting to become a concern.
Hard red spring wheat planting was reported at 45%. This is up 23% from last week and is way behind the six-year average.