Planting Season: Crop Progress Report #3

The USDA Crop Progress report showed that corn planting advanced just 7% this week resulting in 30% of crops planted. This compares to the average trade estimate at 35% and my Friday estimate at 35%. The six year average is at 63%.  The states that are way behind are Illinois at 11%, Indiana at 6%, Ohio at 4%, and South Dakota again came in at 0%. South Dakota alone could see over 1 million acres of prevent plant claims. With new crop cash bids for soybeans below $7.00, the prevent plant claim is now the least lost alternative.

The report today showed corn emergence at just 10% compared to the five-year average at 29%. Keep in mind that it is not planting date, but emergence date that ultimately will impact yields.

Here is what to watch for in future reports.

Six Year Average Actual USDA
Monday, April 15 5% 3%
Monday, April 22 12% 6%
Monday, April 29 25% 15%
Monday, May 6 43% 23%
Monday, May 13 63% 30%
Monday, May 20 81% 50%(Al’s Estimate)

 

I am now taking both my harvested acreage and yield projections lower after today’s USDA Crop Progress report.

For soybeans, nationwide planting was reported at 9%. This compares to 6% last week and the five-year average at 29%. Although, its only May, this is now starting to become a concern.

Hard red spring wheat planting was reported at 45%. This is up 23% from last week and is way behind the six-year average.