Planting Season: Crop Progress Report #2

Corn planting is falling further behind with the USDA reporting that just 23% of corn was planted. This is 20% behind the six-year average at 43%. Last year US farmers made rapid progress during this same week, but that does not look likely this year. The big surprise was in Illinois where only 1% of the corn was planted as of last week.  Illinois is now 56% behind the five-year average.

Here is what to watch for in future reports.

Six Year Average Actual USDA
Monday, April 15 5% 3%
Monday, April 22 12% 6%
Monday, April 29 25% 15%
Monday, May 6 43% 23%
Monday, May 13 63% 44%(Al’s Estimate)
Monday, May 20 81%

 

If US farmers report less than 50% of the corn is planted in the Crop Progress report next Monday, then I think we will see a positive market reaction.

For soybeans, nationwide planting was reported at 6%. This compares to 3% last week and the six-year average at 13%. No one is likely to get worried about any planting delays for soybeans. If wet weather delays corn and spring wheat planting, then odds are good that some of those acres will be changed over to soybeans.

Hard red spring wheat planting was reported at 22%. This is up 9% from last week and is way behind the six-year average at 54%. For many farmers in North Dakota it’s now time to make the critical decision to plant spring wheat or file a prevent plant claim. With new crop prices way below farmers cost of production, many farmers will decide to file the prevent plant claim.