Monday AM Update

Monday December 9, 2024, 5:30 AM CST

MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY: Al Kluis

This is your opening grain comments.  On Friday, the grain markets closed mixed with corn higher, soybeans mostly lower and wheat lower. For the week, corn and soybeans closed higher. In the news over the weekendm rhe Assad regime fell in Syria in 48 hours. This was a big blow to Iran and Russia. I am surprised that energy prices are not sharply higher – at least not yet. 

On the CBOT at this hour, corn futures are 1 cent higher, soybean futures are 1 cent lower, and wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents higher.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, corn and soybean prices are higher.  In the grain market in Europe, wheat is 2 cents per bushel lower at $7.38.

UPCOMING EVENT: Join us tomorrow (Tuesday, December 10) at 10:45 AM for the monthly USDA Crop Report Webinar. The reports will include updated US and global supply and demand numbers, and the latest USDA projections on the size of the South American corn and soybean crops. This report will include the updated USDA corn and soybean production estimates. The webinar invite will be emailed to you this morning and include the Webinar ID and Password.

TO DO:   Review our price targets and where you should be.  

WHAT WE’RE THINKING:  The new administration will be aggressive in putting trade agreements together. That is the main reason he is doing all of the threats of tariffs–to get a better trade deal. 

WHAT TO WATCH: I am watching the ending stocks numbers for corn and soybeans. They are large, but month-by-month the ending stocks projections have been moving lower.    

THE GRAIN MARKETS

Overnight Markets

March Corn:  The trading range is 2 cents; the last trade shows corn futures are up 1 cent at $4.40 per bushel 

January Soybeans:  The trading range is 5 cents; the last trade shows prices up 4 cent at $9.95.

Wheat: Chicago wheat is up 4 cents, KC wheat futures are up 5 cents, Minneapolis wheat up 4 cents.

Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is down 0.5% while stocks in Japan are up 0.1%. European stocks are up 0.1%.  

Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is down 0.19 points at 105.86, crude oil is up 92 cents per barrel at $68.11, S&P futures are down 7 points at 6,091; Dow futures are down 7 points higher at 44,699 and gold futures are up $17 per ounce at $2,565.

Livestock Futures:  In the livestock markets on Friday, February hogs closed up 97 cents at $87.32, February cattle closed down 15 cents at $186.17 and January Feeder cattle closed up 90 cents at $255.82.

TODAY’S CHART:   Corn

About this chart: This is the CBOT March 2025 corn chart.  You can see the major high ($5.08) in May 2024, and the fall to the initial low ($4.04) in late August. Futures rallied 48 cents back to $4.52. The next low came in $4.16. The Thursday low ($4.28) is good short-term support. The close on Friday above $4.38 opens the door for a test of $4.50. If you need to sell corn, have that offer at $4.48. [Chart source: DTN/ProphetX] 

NEWS AND EVENTS:

Good morning! I’m DT, Al’s favorite weather guy. The weather turned warmer across the central US, and more-seasonal temps returned across most of the US. The outlook is for slightly warmer but mostly seasonal temps now through mid-December. 

Meanwhile, the weather remains non-threatening for Brazil. Additional rain is forecast for northern Brazil by late this week. The outlook has also improved for Argentinal where they had widespread rain this weekend. The extended maps now show more rain and seasonal temperatures into mid-December. 

Al tells me that with non-threatening weather in the forecast for South America, corn and soybean prices will start out lower this week. Wheat may move higher on the uncertainty in Syria.