FRIDAY, MARCH 21, 2025, 5:10 AM CST
MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN
This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Friday, March 21, 2025. The grain markets were mixed on Thursday. Old crop corn and soybean prices posted gains of 5 to 7 cents while new crop prices were steady to up 1. Wheat prices were hit with selling pressure, likely tied to net cancellations in old crop wheat exports. Wheat cancellations appear to have been rolled into new crop sales. This is not uncommon to see happen this time of year. In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are steady, soybean futures are down 1 and wheat futures are up 1 to 2 cents.
TO DO: No new recommendations at this time. The 2025 Planting Intentions Survey was emailed last week; the deadline to complete the survey is noon TOMORROW (Saturday, March 22). Please take a few minutes to participate in our annual survey; we only share the results with those who participate.
FILL OUT THE 2025 PLANTING INTENTIONS SURVEY HERE
PRICE TARGETS: Click here to review our current price targets.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING: The bull spreads in corn have rallied 10 cents in the past two days. That strength is a good sign that we have etched an important low ahead of spring planting. However, the “Prospective Plantings” report at the end of the month could change that.
WHAT TO WATCH: The weekly USDA Export Sales report yesterday was neutral for corn, and negative for soybeans. Old crop wheat saw net cancellations that appear to have been rolled to new crop. Here are the estimates and the actual figures for the week ending March 13:
THE MARKETS
Overnight Markets
May Corn: The trading range is 3 cents; prices are steady at $4.68.
May Soybeans: The trading range is 8 cents; prices are down 1 at $10.13.
Wheat: CBOT wheat is up 2; Minneapolis wheat is up 1 and KC Wheat futures are up 2.
Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is down 2.2%, Japanese stocks are down 0.2% and European stocks are down 1.0%.
Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is up 0.23 at 103.68, crude oil is down 44 cents per barrel at $67.93, S&P futures are down 22 points at 5,694, Dow futures are down 177 points at 42,145 and gold futures are down $17 at $3,036.
Livestock Futures: Livestock futures closed mixed on Thursday. April Lean Hogs closed down 2 cents at $85.55. April Live Cattle closed up $1.65 at $208.47. March Feeder Cattle closed up $1.72 at $288.45.
TODAY’S CHART: This is the weekly continuation chart of Feeder Cattle futures. We can see that prices etched a standout low ($209.15) in December 2023, then rallied to the May 2024 high ($264.95). Prices then fell to the September 2024 low at $232.85. The first rally was $55.80; if we add $55.80 to the September 2024 low, we get $288.65. Prices hit a high this week at $288.42. This would be a great example of equal leg theory, with an upside target near the high hit this week. However, the cattle market has been on a bull run that is being driven by supply. Will the market pull back from current price levels and then muster another rally to another new all-time high? Momentum indicators are deeply overbought, suggesting we are due for a pullback.