FRIDAY, January 10, 2025, 4:50 AM CST
MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN
This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Friday, January 10, 2025. The grain markets were mixed on Thursday in the shortened trading session ahead of the USDA report today. Corn and soybeans were quietly higher while wheat was quietly lower. The grain bulls need a friendly report today in more than one area if prices have a chance to move through recent highs. Once the major commotion is over after the 11:00 report, the spotlight will return to the large South American crop and we will start seeing estimates for US acres this year. We are already hearing some analysts suggesting corn acres could be near 95 million acres. In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are up 1, soybean futures are up 8 and wheat futures are up 2 to 4 cents.
Join us TODAY (January 10) at 10:45 AM for this annual USDA crop report webinar. The reports will include the USDA Final Crop Production Report for corn and soybeans, updated US and global supply and demand numbers, and the latest USDA projections on the size of the South American corn and soybean crops. Trade attention is on the final US crop size. However, the fireworks in this annual release have usually been related to the Grain Stocks report. The webinar invite was sent on Wednesday and included the webinar ID and password.
TO DO: There are no new recommendations at this time.
PRICE TARGETS: Click here to review our current price targets.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING: Traders expect small decreases to US yields in the USDA report today. US stocks data could be the wild card today, since the trade has had a difficult time estimating this information over the last few years. The world supply is expected to increase in both corn and soybeans, since analysts expect South American production to climb.
WHAT TO WATCH: The weekly USDA Export Sales report is due out this morning.
Negative numbers report canceled sales. Traders expect the following sales for the week ending January 2…
THE MARKETS
Overnight Markets
March Corn: The trading range is 2 cents; prices are up 1 at $4.58.
March Soybeans: The trading range is 9 cents; prices are up 8 at $10.05.
Wheat: CBOT wheat is up 2; Minneapolis wheat is up 3 and KC Wheat futures are up 4.
Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is down 0.9%, Japanese stocks are down 1.0% and European stocks are up 0.3%.
Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is up 0.01 at 109.02, crude oil is up $1.56 per barrel at $75.85, S&P futures are up 2 points at 5,946, Dow futures are up 10 points at 42,832 and gold futures are up $15 at $2,708.
Livestock Futures: Livestock futures closed higher on Thursday. February Lean Hogs closed up $2.30 at $81.77. February Live Cattle closed up $3.90 at $197.60. January Feeder Cattle closed up $3.65 at $269.22.
TODAY’S CHART: This is the daily chart of March corn futures. You can see that prices have posted a nice 56 cent rally from the late-August low to the Monday high. The horizontal red line indicates the February 26 low at $4.59. The old support has become a stiff level of resistance for the bulls. If the report today is friendly, then the next upside target would be the horizontal pink line near $4.68. This is the 61.8% retracement of the May high and August low last year. If the report today is bearish, then the first level of support is the 20-day moving average (the blue line) at $4.50. The 50-day moving average (the gold line) is near $4.41, while the 100-day moving average (the black line) is near $4.34.