Friday AM Update

FRIDAY, December 20, 2024, 4:50 AM CST

MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN

This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Friday, December 20, 2024. The grain markets were mixed on Thursday. Corn and soybeans were able to close higher after starting off lower. All three classes of wheat were lower, and many contracts fell to new lows. If corn and soybeans can close higher today, then the charts would slightly favor the bulls when trading resumes next week. In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are up 3, soybean futures are up 7 and wheat futures are up 3 to 5 cents. 

TO DO:  There are no new recommendations at this time. 

PRICE TARGETS: Click here to review our current price targets.  

WHAT WE’RE THINKING:  December 21 (the winter equinox) marks the official start of winter. As with the summer equinox (June 20), we are always watching for an extreme in prices around these equinox dates. Are we etching a major low in the soybean and wheat markets?

WHAT TO WATCH:  The weekly USDA Export Sales report yesterday was neutral for corn and soybeans while wheat was strong. Here are the estimates and the actual from the week ending December 12:

THE MARKETS

Overnight Markets

March Corn:  The trading range is 5 cents; prices are up 3 at $4.43.

January Soybeans:  The trading range is 11 cents; prices are up 7 at $9.70. 

Wheat: CBOT wheat is up 3; Minneapolis wheat is up 5 and KC Wheat futures are up 3.

Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is down 0.2%, Japanese stocks are down 0.3% and European stocks are down 1.3%.

Outside Markets:  The US Dollar Index is down 0.23 at 107.92, crude oil is down 53 cents per barrel at $68.70, S&P futures are down 52 points at 5,889, Dow futures are down 276 points at 42,565 and gold futures are up $10 at $2,620.

Livestock Futures:  Livestock futures closed lower on Thursday. February Lean Hogs closed down 7 cents at $83.62. February Live Cattle closed down $1.77 at $186.55. January Feeder Cattle closed down $2.52 at $254.47.

TODAY’S CHART:  This is the daily continuation chart of soybean futures. We can see that prices put in a major low at $9.36 on August 16 this year (the pink line). The recovery rally peaked at $10.69 on September 27. Recall that the continuation chart shows the front month contract until it expires, then the next month is used. The next level of support is $9.36, the major low from mid-August. Resistance overhead sits at the 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages ($9.84, $9.89 and $9.97 respectively). Momentum indicators (below price chart) are trying to turn higher. If we see a strong close above the October 30 low (the red line), then it could trigger some short-term momentum buying.