FRIDAY, March 1, 2024, 4:50 AM CST
MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN
This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Friday, March 1, 2024. The grain market was mostly quiet at the close on Thursday. As trading wrapped up for February, the spring crop insurance base prices were set. Corn was set at $4.66 while soybeans were set at $11.55. The new crop ratio stands near 2.45 as of this morning, which is in neutral territory. Will we see the ratio shift to encourage more acres of corn or soybeans this year? In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are up 1, soybean futures are up 6 and wheat futures are steady to down 3 cents.
COMMODITY CLASSIC: Our team will be at Commodity Classic through March 2nd. See details below!
TO DO: Our team has no new recommendations at this time.
PRICE TARGETS: Click here to review our current price targets.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING: The Weekly Export Sales report for soybeans was disappointing yesterday. Traders are not expecting these reports to provide much bullish news for soybeans in the near future.
WHAT TO WATCH: The weekly USDA Export Sales report from yesterday was on the low end of trade expectations for soybeans, middle range for wheat and at the top end of estimates for corn. Here are the estimates and the actual from the week ending February 22:
THE MARKETS
Overnight Markets
May Corn: The trading range is 4 cents; prices are up 1 at $4.17.
May Soybeans: The trading range is 14 cents; prices are up 6 at $11.47.
Wheat: CBOT wheat is down 2; Minneapolis wheat is steady and KC Wheat futures are down 3 cents.
Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is up 0.5%, Japanese stocks are up 1.9% and European stocks are up 0.3%.
Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is down 0.2 at 104.75, crude oil is up 84 cents per barrel at $79.10, S&P futures are down 9 points at 5,095, Dow futures are down 84 points at 38,959 and gold futures are up $7 at $2,062.
Livestock Futures: Livestock futures closed mixed on Thursday. April Lean Hogs closed up 62 cents at $86.62. April Live Cattle closed down 77 cents at $185.35. March Feeder Cattle closed down 60 cents at $249.00.
TODAY’S CHART: This is the daily chart of July soybean futures. We can see that prices briefly made a lower low for the week during trade yesterday. However, there was no follow-through selling triggered at the new low. This could be a sign that the bears are running out of gas. The bulls need something to kick-start short-covering by the funds. In the short term, a technical breakout could be what the bulls use to turn the tides. The first major resistance that needs to be surpassed is the 20-day moving average (the blue line). If the rally starts soon, or is we see a weather rally develop this spring or summer, then an upside target to watch for is the December 29 gap ($13.12; the purple line). Momentum indicators have been oversold since late December.
UPCOMING EVENTS:
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