FRIDAY, January 12, 2024, 4:50 AM CST
MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN
This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Friday, January 12, 2024. Grain traders will finally get to see what the USDA has in store for final numbers of this year’s crop in the US. The trade is not expecting any major change to yield or production for corn or soybeans compared to last month. However, the quarterly stocks data is where they expect to see some big changes compared to last year. Corn could be the highest in five years, while soybeans could be the lowest in the last three years. Wheat quarterly stocks are expected to be the largest in three years. In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are steady, soybean futures are up 6 and wheat futures are up 1 to 4 cents.
Upcoming event: Join us TODAY at 10:45 AM for our USDA crop report webinar. The reports will include the USDA’s annual Final Crop Production report for corn and soybeans, updated US and global supply and demand numbers, and the latest USDA projections on the size of the South American corn and soybean crops. The webinar invite was emailed Wednesday and includes the Webinar ID and Password.
Kluis updates for the holiday weekend. Grain markets will trade normally through the close today. There will be no trading on Sunday evening or Monday during the day. Grain trading will resume on Monday evening at 7:00 PM. We will provide our next AM update on Tuesday morning.
TO DO: Our team has no new recommendations at this time.
PRICE TARGETS: Click here to review our current price targets.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING: Once the knee-jerk reaction to the report plays out, will we see the momentum change? Will the bears take advantage of a bearish report and begin short covering? This report has been a key turning point for prices more than once.
WHAT TO WATCH: The weekly USDA Export Sales report from yesterday was below trade expectations. However, this is in line with what we have seen during the final weeks of December in the past few years. Here are the estimates and the actual from the week ending January 4…
THE MARKETS
Overnight Markets
March Corn: The trading range is 2 cents; prices are steady at $4.58.
March Soybeans: The trading range is 8 cents; prices are up 6 at $12.43.
Wheat: CBOT wheat is up 4; Minneapolis wheat is up 2 and KC Wheat futures are up 1 cent.
Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is down 1.7%, Japanese stocks are up 0.1% and European stocks are up 0.9%.
Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is up 0.08 at 102.10, crude oil is up $2.98 per barrel at $75.00, S&P futures are down 5 points at 4,810, Dow futures are up 24 points at 37,951 and gold futures are up $29 at $2,048.
Livestock Futures: Livestock futures closed higher on Thursday. February Lean Hogs closed up 52 cents at $72.60. February Live Cattle closed up $1.05 at $171.80. January Feeder Cattle closed up $1.65 at $226.27.
TODAY’S CHART: This is the daily continuation chart of corn futures. You can see the big gap in mid-December that was created when the December contract expired and March took over as the front-month contract. That day marked the highest for the month; prices spent the rest of the month trading sideways. January kicked off the year with the bears pressuring prices below the 20-day moving average (the gold line). The low this week was the lowest level seen since November 30. Unlike nearly all other corn contracts (which trading at new contract lows this week), this chart has not made new lows. If the bears can break below the key support of $4.47 (the black line), then we could see new momentum sellers jump on the bearish bandwagon. The bulls need this level to hold and start to push higher and get above the 20-day average again.