FRIDAY, December 8, 2023, 4:50 AM CST
MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN
This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Friday, December 8, 2023. Grain prices were higher at the close on Thursday, led by soybeans and wheat. Traders are not expecting much of a change to the US production numbers in the USDA report today. The spotlight will be on South American production, since the weather over the last two months has not been ideal. Crude oil dipped below the $70 mark this week for the first time since early July, and the US dollar failed to break above the 100-day moving average twice this week. In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are up 1, soybean futures are up 3 and wheat futures are down 3 to up 1 cent.
UPCOMING EVENTS: Join us TODAY at 10:45 AM for the monthly USDA crop report webinar. The reports will include updated US and global supply and demand numbers, and the latest USDA projections on the size of the South American corn and soybean crops. This report will include the updated USDA corn and soybean production estimates. The webinar invite was emailed Wednesday and included the Webinar ID and Password.
TO DO: Our team has no new recommendations at this time.
PRICE TARGETS: Click here to review our current price targets.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING: Wheat has posted an impressive rally over the last eight trading days. Will we see anything in the USDA report today that will change the trend? Or will the funds continue to cover short positions?
WHAT TO WATCH: The weekly USDA Export Sales report from yesterday was in line with expectations for all three grains. Here are the estimates and the actual from the week ending November 30…
THE MARKETS
Overnight Markets
March Corn: The trading range is 2 cents; prices are up 1 at $4.89.
January Soybeans: The trading range is 8 cents; prices are up 3 at $13.15.
Wheat: CBOT wheat is down 3; Minneapolis wheat is down 1 and KC Wheat futures are up 1 cents.
Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is down 0.1%, Japanese stocks are down 1.7% and European stocks are up 0.4%.
Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is up 0.21 at 103.72, crude oil is up $1.15 per barrel at $70.49, S&P futures are up 2 points at 4,592, Dow futures are up 23 points at 36,189 and gold futures are down $1 at $2,045.
Livestock Futures: Livestock futures closed mixed on Thursday. December Lean Hogs closed steady at $67.55. December Live Cattle closed down $1.10 at $162.35. January Feeder Cattle closed up 12 cents at $210.27.
TODAY’S CHART: This is the daily chart of March corn futures. We can see that futures put in a low November 29 at $4.70 and have since posted a nice rally to the high of $4.94 on Wednesday. The low on November 29 was very close to the trend line support (the black line) that is drawn from May 18 and August 15 lows. The high on Wednesday was within a penny of the 50-day moving average (the blue line). Price have not been above this line since October 24. If the bulls can keep this rally going, then getting above this line is the first objective. The next overhead target would be the 100-day moving average near $5.00 (the gold line).