THURSDAY, October 2, 2025, 4:30 AM CST
MORNING MARKET COMMENTS BY BOB LINNEMAN
This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Thursday, October 2, 2025. On Wednesday, corn and soybean prices managed to rebound from early-session losses to close higher. The late-day surge came from a social media post by President Trump saying soybeans are going to be a major topic of discussion at his meeting with President Xi in a month. Will those comments trigger short-covering by the funds? Are these comments enough to encourage new momentum traders to jump in on the long side, or will that take actual sales announcements? In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are down 1, soybean futures are down 2, and wheat futures are steady to up 1 cent.
TO DO: No new recommendations at this time.
PRICE TARGETS: You can click here to review our current and updated price targets.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING: Firms are updating their yield estimates as harvest approaches the 20% mark. Corn yield is trending downward, and soybean yields are steady or improving slightly.
WHAT TO WATCH: The weekly USDA Export Sales report is delayed until further notice. The government shutdown has halted all reports.
The social media post by President Trump caused grain prices to turn higher on the day. Will this brief headline by the President be enough to stabilize prices for the next 4 weeks before the talks take place?
OVERNIGHT MARKETS
December Corn: The trading range is 3 cents; prices are down 1 at $4.17.
November Soybeans: The trading range is 6 cents; prices are down 2 at $10.13.
Wheat: CBOT wheat is steady; Minneapolis wheat is up 1 and KC Wheat is up 1.
Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is up 1.6%, Japanese stocks are up 0.9% and European stocks are up 1.3%.
Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is down 0.18 at 97.24, crude oil is down 50 cents per barrel at $61.30, S&P futures are up 12 points at 6,769, Dow futures are down 11 points at 46,686 and gold futures are up $10 at $3,903.
Livestock Futures: Livestock futures closed lower on Wednesday. October Lean Hogs closed down $1.42 at $98.42. October Live Cattle closed down 75 cents at $231.10. October Feeder Cattle closed down $2.05 at $358.97.
TODAY’S CHART: Soybeans
ABOUT THIS CHART: This is the 5-minute chart of November soybean futures. You can see that prices were trading quietly just below the $10 mark for much of the day. At noon, prices inched back above the $10 mark and futures made a quick push toward the $10.10 area before backing off a nickel. Then at 12:53 PM we can see prices shot higher and eventually peaked at $10.20 shortly after 1:00. Volume is shown below the price chart; we can see that each 5-minute bar had volume well below 500 contracts prior to noon. When prices pushed above the $10 mark, volume picked up to around 5000 contracts per 5-minute bar. Then volume shot to over 13,500 contracts when President Trump posted his comment about soybeans being a major topic with China. We traded over 60,000 contracts from 12:50 to the close at 1:20. That was 29% of the daily volume in the last 30 minutes of the day. This is how sensitive the soybean market is to China coming back to the US for soybeans; and this was just a post about how soybeans will be a talking point for negotiations in a month. What happens if China buys soybeans?